Quick Take
The long-awaited ceasefire deal between Israel and Hamas was announced just days before President-elect Donald Trump’s inauguration. Many on both sides hoped for a deal that would reunite hostages with their families after over 15 months, bring humanitarian aid to Palestinian civilians, and stop the bloodshed. While President Biden had outlined the framework for the deal back in May, the agreement was only struck months later. Several factors likely contributed to this timing, but International Relations (IR) research points to two key elements that may have made the breakthrough possible at this moment.
First, a week before the deal, Trump issued a public threat that "all hell will break out" if an agreement wasn’t reached by the time he took office. IR research indicates that threats from democratic leaders are often credible because they can generate "audience costs"—the political penalties leaders face if they back down from public threats. While the specifics of Trump’s warning were unclear, the looming inauguration likely created a strong sense of urgency.
Second, the U.S. was able to exert diplomatic pressure on Israel, particularly on Netanyahu, who has been reluctant to move forward with the deal for domestic political reasons. According to some reports, Trump’s special envoy to the Middle East, Steve Witkoff, delivered a stern message to Netanyahu during a surprise visit last Saturday, demanding the deal be sealed. While IR research, including some of my own, shows that public diplomacy can backfire—especially in the Israeli context—research also suggests that private diplomacy, and pressure from close allies, can be effective.
Now, the key question is whether the agreement will be implemented. This presents a tough test for the incoming administration in its first week and raises the question of whether the Trump administration will continue to leverage its position with Israel in future negotiations.
The most remarkable thing is that the ceasefire agreement is basically the ceasefire proposal that the Biden Administration had submitted seven months ago. It hasn't changed fundamentally - some details, yes, but it is still the same agreement which has been negotiated for months.
What has changed is 1) public opinion - Israeli military generals have been telling the political leadership in Israel that, look, we've obtained all of our war aims, we've decapitated the Hamas leadership, we've degraded Hamas possibly as much as we can - it'll always be there, but we've done as much as we can through military means - and therefore the time has come for a ceasefire. Also, the hostage families have increasing influence, I think, on Israeli public opinion, to have their family members returned. This has become a very critical point.
I think the second factor is what you could call the Trump effect. With President Trump coming into office, he has made it very clear to Netanyahu, the Prime Minister of Israel, that he does not want to have this crisis on his hands when he's inaugurated as the President of the United States.
Excerpt taken from an interview with CBS. Watch online for more detailed analysis on the ceasefire agreement as it stands, and the future of governance in Israel and Gaza.
On Friday afternoon, Israel’s government approved a ceasefire that brings a tenuous pause to 15 months of brutal war. Celebrations erupted across Gaza as Palestinians rejoiced the surge in humanitarian aid and possibility of returning to their homes as the first phase of the deal is implemented.
The optimism may soon be tempered. The war emboldened right-wing political factions within the government who have opposed a hostage deal since the start of the war. Many of their supporters responded to the news of a ceasefire by taking to the streets in protest, urging Israel’s army continue fighting until it has achieved ‘complete victory.’
Politicians are heeding their demands. Finance Minister Bezalel Smotrich has pledged to resign from the government and National Security Minister Itamar Ben Gvir has pledged to retire if the war does not resume after the first phase of the ceasefire deal expires, in 42 days. By then, only 33 Israeli hostages will have returned to their homes and hundreds of thousands of Palestinians in Gaza will remain displaced, in desperate need of aid, medical care, and housing.
The pause to fighting is vital after almost one and a half years of devastation. However, much is needed to ensure the ceasefire last longer than the first phase. Without more, millions will be frozen in a state of perpetual war.
All should give thanks that a ceasefire has finally been reached and that hostages will be freed.
The central question now is whether the agreement will be fully implemented and endure or whether it marks only a temporary lull. Neither side won: Gaza now lies in ruins, but Israel failed to achieve its stated goal of eliminating Hamas and has faced widespread global condemnation for its conduct of the war. A political solution to this long conflict is farther away than ever. Until Palestinians and Israelis agree on how to divide or share the territory they cohabit, violence, suffering, and injustice will continue.