Quick Take
One of the big questions to emerge from the end of the Pax Americana was what would come next. Now we know. Partially as a result of American retrenchment, partly because of the divisions within the West, a Chinese-led order is beginning to take shape. President Xi Jinping is dominating the world stage like few others, uniting all the forces unhappy with the US-created and -led world under his wing. Countries like India, Brazil, even Russia and North Korea may not like to cede leadership to China, but with the United States abandoning its traditional global leadership role, they have little choice.
The question for the future is how China will use the power America’s abdication has provided it? Will it seek to create a more inclusive, equal, and shared world that gives all those who seek it their due? Or will it exert the power it has to shape a role that forces others to sing to its tunes? And what about those, like America’s erstwhile allies who, still powerful when acting together, have little interest in a world led from Beijing? The answer to these questions is what will shape the world far more than the next unexpected act emanating from Washington in the years ahead.
President Trump was more revelatory than he may have intended when he sarcastically told President Xi Jinping of China on Tuesday night to “give my warmest regards to Vladimir Putin, and Kim Jong Un, as you conspire against The United States of America.”
It was one of the first times that the President had acknowledged the alignment of Russia, China, Iran and North Korea — one of the biggest geopolitical developments of recent years, on display in vivid form in Tianjin and then at the parade in Beijing marking the 80th anniversary of the end of World War II. Until now, the administration had largely dismissed the alignment of these powers or spoke about vague desires to strip Russia away from China, given their long-running rivalries. But these were mostly hopes, not strategies.
This was, of course, a week that was more about optics than alliances; just because Prime Minister Modi, President Putin and President Xi held hands, or Modi and Putin talked in a car for a bit less than an hour, does not reshape global rivalries. President Pezeshkian may well have been asking why, if these countries were such great partners, they never lifted a finger to help Iran when it was engaged in a 12-day conflict with Israel. Similarly, the United States should not overhype the immediate threat of this partnership.
But there is little question that the approach President Trump has taken over the past seven months in office has helped drive together this aggregation of aggrieved states. These forces were at work before he took office for his second term, but they are accelerating as nations and leaders look for alternatives to tying themselves to the American camp. In that regard, the scenes that emerged from China this week are a warning that a reshaping of power is already underway, and America needs a strategy to deal with it.
During this year of the 80th anniversary of World War II, the Communist Party has used historical analogies to make points about China’s future international role.
World War II was devastating for China; under its then Nationalist leader Chiang Kai-shek, the country was at war with Japan from 1937 to 1945, and lost millions of dead during the years of conflict. In 1949, Mao’s Communists defeated Chiang’s Nationalists in the civil war, but today’s People’s Republic nonetheless now claims legitimacy from the suffering and sacrifices of the war period when the Nationalists were in charge. During the parade that took place on 3 September, one of the most striking elements was the appearance of China’s United Nations peacekeepers, the Blue Berets, signalling China’s growing belief that it is becoming the leading power at the UN.
In recent years, China has argued that its wartime sacrifices were the reason that it was granted its postwar status as a UN security council Permanent 5 member, and it argues that its influence in today’s UN is a direct legacy of its contribution to winning the war. In fact, it was the Nationalist government under Chiang that signed the UN charter in 1945, and for most of the period of Mao’s rule, the PRC was excluded from the UN.
But the presence of China’s Blue Berets in Tiananmen Square is a sign that Beijing seeks to make a linear connection between the exhausted China of 1945, just taking up its new international role in the postwar order, and the powerful global actor that it is in 2025.
The Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) Summit unequivocally reaffirmed that “great power competition” is advancing with the unwavering primary goal of challenging and undermining U.S. global power and influence. And it is expanding to include not only great powers, but middle powers like Iran and North Korea. As the host, leaders in Beijing clearly seek to elevate China's geopolitical position and impact. Their military parade was especially orchestrated to showcase China’s advanced armament and enhanced defense capabilities. The enduring Xi-Putin strategic alignment was also on full display, as was China’s growing willingness to back Putin’s war in Ukraine and to defy Washington in doing so.
That China was finally willing to commit to the Power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline—despite possible U.S. sanctions on Chinese firms that participate—sent this unambiguous message. In its totality, the SCO Summit underscored the importance of close coordination with America's allies and partners in both the Indo-Pacific and in Europe to effectively counter these direct threats to our national security.
It’s a remarkable, historic success that 80 years after World War II, Japan and Germany have become vital U.S. allies.
But as Beijing commemorates the end of WWII this week at the Victory Day parade, we’re seeing revisionism at work. China and Russia are claiming to be the “main victors” of the war in the Pacific, exaggerating the role of Stalin’s USSR and conveniently leaving out the fact that FDR’s America was China’s main ally and led the victory in the Pacific. Facts matter.
The deeper concern is geopolitical. The China–Russia–North Korea axis on display in Beijing represents a serious threat to the U.S. and its democratic allies. This is why President Trump’s misguided tariffs were a major miscalculation--they have weakened our alliances with Japan, South Korea, and India at a critical point in time. We need their help to counter the adversarial alignment unfolding before our eyes.