Russian Election Watch No. 10, November 1, 1995

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RUSSIAN ELECTION WATCH
November 1, 1995, No. 10

To help track significant developments affecting Russian
elections, the Strengthening Democratic Institutions Project
offers a simplified summary of recent political events, including
a "betting chart." Individual''s estimates of the likelihood of
Russian elections and their results are presented as numerical
estimated probabilities not because anyone entertains illusions
about precision, but to make the estimators state their bets as
clearly as possible.

I. Estimated Probabilities of Duma Elections in December 1995

A. Individuals Likelihood Change From Last Month

Graham Allison (11/1): 85%
Director
SDI Project

Sergei Grigoriev (11/1): 75%
SDI Project Fellow
Former Spokesman for Gorbachev

John Lloyd (8/17) 75%
Former Moscow Bureau Chief
Financial Times

Matthew Lantz (11/1) 75% -10%
SDI Project

B. Recent Events that Favor Parliamentary Elections:

PARTY SIGNATURE GATHERING COMES TO A CLOSE. 43 parties
submitted signature lists to the Central Election Commission
(CEC) by the October 22nd deadline. In order to campaign,
each party had to submit 200,000 signatures, with no more
than 7% from any one district. The CEC will now review the
lists and announce on November 2nd which parties meet the
requirements to campaign for the December 17th election.
Many parties hired consultants to collect signatures. Costs
for such services ranged from 23¢ to a few dollars per
signature. CEC Chair NIKOLAI RYABOV claimed the process had
been marred by gross violations including intimidation and
bribery. In some cases parties helped like-minded parties
gather signatures in the regions to thwart their opponent''s
efforts. (OMRI 10/23,10/18,10/6, FT 10/21-2, Kommersant
Daily 10/10)

CEC APPROVES ELECTION LISTS FOR 19 BLOCS. Our Home is
Russia, Women of Russia, Congress of Russian Communities, the
Communist Party of Russian Federation, the Agrarian Party of
Russian, the Rybkin bloc, the Free Trade Unions and
Industrialists, and Russia''s Democratic Choice all had their
party lists approved by the CEC and may now begin officially
campaigning. (OMRI 10/23, 10/31)

RUSSIAN PUBLIC TV (ORT) ANNOUNCES COSTS OF ELECTION
COMMERCIALS. One minute between 19:00 and 22:00 will cost
$20,500. On weekends, one minute will cost $24,500. In the
morning or late evening, one minute will cost between $1500
and $7000. Radio is expected to cost between $240 and $1500
per minute. Each approved party will also be guaranteed
thirty minutes of free air time between November 15th and
December 15th. (Kommersant Daily 10/10)

CAMPAIGNING SEES MOVEMENT AWAY FROM PROFESSIONAL
POLITICAL CONSULTANTS. Political consultants are not being
used as often in these elections. As parties have gained
more experience and prices for consulting services have gone
up, the parties have stayed in house to create their own
campaign strategies. In this election many of the parties
want to stress face-to-face contact over image making.
Consultants claim after bad results, the parties will return.
(Moscow Times 9/24)

C. Recent Events That Raise Doubts About Parliamentary
Elections:

CEC BANS YABLOKO AND DERZHAVA FROM PARTICIPATING IN
PARLIAMENTARY ELECTIONS. On Sunday, October 27th the CEC
announced the Yabloko and Derzhava blocs would not be
allowed to participate in the election because of changes to
their electoral lists. Both parties have appealed to the
Supreme Court for a ruling. Russia''s Democratic Choice
announced if Yabloko was not allowed to participate, it would
not either, effectively removing all democratic parties from
the election. This would invalidate the elections in the
eyes of many Russians and in the international arena.
Yabloko''s main competitors, the Communists, Our Home is
Russia, and the Congress of Russian Communities all condemned
the CEC action, claiming an election without Yabloko would
not be a true election. The CEC voted against Yabloko 10-3
with 3 abstentions. (See individual parties below for more
details.) (various sources including NYT, FT, BG, and OMRI,
10/27-31)

COST LIMITS OF ELECTION TOO LOW? A Kommersant Daily
editorial claimed that it is unrealistic to expect parties to
stay within cost limits established by the CEC. Currently,
parties can only spend $2 million on their campaigns. But
with each district expected to cost between $150,000 and
$200,000 and TV advertisement space costing over $20,000 per
minute, the campaign spending ceiling is unrealistically low
and will force illegal activity. The most likely abuses of
the law will come from buying votes and bribing TV officials.
The CEC claims it does not have the time to monitor all
parties'' spending and assumes the parties will monitor each
other. (Kommersant Daily 10/13, Moscow Times 9/24)

PLETHORA OF PARTIES COULD BE CONFUSING TO VOTERS. 43
parties submitted signatures to the CEC. In the Moscow
Oblast, which does not include city of Moscow, 230 candidates
are running for 11 district seats. Many fear voters will
have too many choices. The popular Communist Party of the
Russian Federation is particularly worried because more than
one Communist party may appear on the list. The
proliferation of parties stems from the fact that parties are
disqualified if an election partner leaves their bloc after
the CEC has approved the candidate list. Therefore, parties
have tried to campaign on their own. (Nevavisimaya Gazeta
10/24, OMRI 10/23)

WILL THE MAJORITY OF THE POPULATION HAVE A VOICE IN THE
NEW DUMA? Fears are arising that the large number of parties
will only allow four or five parties to clear the 5% hurdle
to get into the Duma. This could leave as much as 50-70% of
the population voting for parties that are not represented in
the Duma. In the 1993 election, only 9% cast votes for
parties not clearing the 5% hurdle. (OMRI 10/27,10/23)

CEC OFFICIALS ANNOUNCE CRIMINAL LIST TO GREAT
CONTROVERSY: The CEC announced a list of 87 individuals
campaigning for Duma seats that had a criminal record. The
list caused great controversy when it was discovered it
included political dissidents from the Soviet era and did not
include some candidates currently being investigated.
Currently, parliamentarians become immune from the law once
elected, making the Duma seats coveted by criminals. The CEC
later admitted the list had errors in it. The party with the
largest number of the list was the Liberal Democratic Party
with 12, followed by Derzhava with 6. (Boston Globe, FT
10/26, OMRI 10/24, 10/4)

II. Estimated Probabilities of Presidential Elections in June

A. Individual Likelihood Change From Last
Week

Graham Allison 50% -10%
Sergei Grigoriev 50% -10%
John Lloyd 55%
Matthew Lantz 40% -5%

YELTSIN AGAIN HOSPITALIZED FOR HEART AILMENT. For the
second time in three months, Boris Yeltsin has been
hospitalized for a heart condition. The condition seems more
serious than previously. No aides have been allowed to see
the president. Only family members and his bodyguard
ALEXANDER KORZHAKOV have gained admittance. Spokesmen claim
Yeltsin''s condition will require that he rests for the next
month. Should Yeltsin die or become incapacitated, Prime
Minister VICTOR CHERNOMYRDIN will become acting president and
must declare presidential elections within three months.
However, no independent body has the authority to declare
Yeltsin incapacitated. Many fear the effects Yeltsin''s
condition will have on both the presidential and
parliamentary elections. (various news sources, 10/28-10/31)

MICHAEL McFAUL ON THE LIKELIHOOD OF PRESIDENTIAL
ELECTIONS. Stanford University professor Michael McFaul
believes many senior figures are "definitely thinking of
postponing the presidential elections indefinitely and
establishing an authoritarian regime...Right now we''re at an
incredible precedent setting moment. Russia has never in its
history had two consecutive elections for leaders on a
federal level. If a second presidential election doesn''t
happen the chance to set that democratic precedent will be
lost, the new leader will be under no obligation to play by
the democratic rules, and what you will have is an
authoritarian regime." (FT 10/31)

III. If Duma Elections are Held in December, What are the Likely
Outcomes?

A. Individuals

Graham Allison John Lloyd

Communist Party (CP-RF) 20% CP-RF 25%
Yabloko (Yavlinsky) 19% NDR 7%
Our Home (NDR) 15% Yabloko 7%
Congress of R. Communities 12% KRO 7%
(Lebed-KRO)
Agrarian Party 10%
LDPR (Zhirinovsky) 6%
Women of Russia 5%
Russia''s Choice (Gaidar) 5%

Sergei Grigoriev Matthew Lantz

Communist Party (CP-RF) 26% CP-RF 28%
Agrarian Party 20% Agrarian 14%
KRO (Lebed) 20% Yabloko 14%
Women of Russia 12% KRO 12%
Yabloko (Yavlinsky) 9% NDR 10%
NDR (Chernomyrdin) 8% LDPR 7%
LDPR (Zhirinovsky) 5% Women of R 6%
Industrialists (Volsky) 5% RChoice 3%
Others 6%

B. New Evidence:

OUR HOME IS RUSSIA (NDR) (Chernomyrdin): It
has been a difficult month for the "Party of Power." Prime
Minister CHERNOMYRDIN assessed his party''s activities on
October 30th claiming NDR had seriously over estimated its
preparedness for the upcoming elections. Forty of the bloc''s
261 candidates had withdrawn; only 60% of the bloc''s single
district candidates were still loyal to NDR. The bloc has
dedicated leaders only in 45 of Russia''s 89 regions.
Chernomyrdin stated the bloc had expected too much from power
positions and recruiting stars and had neglected
organization. In response to this, SERGEI BELAYEV, the
campaign manager, will be instructed to run the campaign
focused on getting out government pensions and compensating
those defrauded by banks. (INTERFAX 10/30)

BELAYEV claims the party will avoid a populist image, despite
its setbacks and expects to win 8-12% of the vote. The
advertising strategy for the bloc will stress no politically
motivated sharp changes of course. The bloc''s symbol is a
house with a Russian flag for its roof, and the slogan is "If
your home is precious to you." (OMRI 10/2, 10/27)

Adhering to the strategy of professionalism in government,
CHERNOMYRDIN asked for a non-aggression pact with the Duma in
order to get legislation through the parliament. NDR leaders
also met with YELTSIN to demonstrate there was no rift
between them. Yeltsin will not endorse any party, but
challenged NDR to work for a democratic majority in the Duma.
(OMRI, 10/12, 10/16)

COMMUNIST PARTY OF THE RUSSIAN
FEDERATION (CP-RF)(Gennady Zyuganov): The CP-RF
continues to lead in the polls and expectations for the
upcoming parliamentary election. The party was the first to
submit its signature list, one of the first to have the list
approved, and the first to qualify for CEC government funding
for its campaign. The CP-RF campaign is still being waged on
the ground at a person-to-person level. (OMRI 10/10)

Because of the party''s popularity, other factions have begun
to attack the Communists. Most notably, President YELTSIN
claimed to have dealings with all parties expect the
Communists and Agrarians, who posed the largest threat to
society. The CP-RF threatened to sue the President for
breaking the law that says government figures cannot campaign
for or against a political party. CEC head NIKOLAI RYABOV
defended the president saying the law did not apply to him.
Also attacking the Communists was Russia''s Democratic Choice
leader YEGOR GAIDAR stating, "It takes complete ignorance to
confuse our Communists with the ex-Communist parties of
Eastern Europe. The greatest impact of a Communist take over
will be felt in Russia''s foreign policy." (OMRI 10/23, 10/24,
FT 10/21-22)

ZYUGANOV attempted to alleviate Western concerns by speaking
before the American Chamber of Commerce in Moscow. He
promised no repeat of the CPSU and claimed his party had no
monopoly on truth, power, or property. The state should
control the energy, transportation, communications, and
military sectors. He also called for lower tariffs and
taxes. The FT assessing his statements described the speech
as at odds with the party platform. (FT 10/19, OMRI 10/27)

ZYUGANOV also said that his faction would not seek to impeach
Yeltsin while he is incapacitated and claimed the CEC ban on
Yabloko was a show. "The whole thing will give Yabloko
priceless publicity." (BG 10/29, NYT 10/31)

CONGRESS OF RUSSIAN COMMUNITIES
(KRO)(Yuri Skokov, Alexander Lebed, Sergei Glazyev): KRO
continues its center-left opposition stances. Its program
values economic power and state paternalism. It seeks
moderate nationalism in a strong state. For the armed
forces, KRO hopes to keep the military out of political
struggles, keep the structure of the army and develop the
high-tech core of the military-industrial base. The party
continually attacks government policies.

KRO, although untested in elections, appears to be doing
well, especially in the military. Its strength lies in its
leaders YURI SKOKOV and especially GEN. ALEXANDER LEBED.
Supporters of KRO will likely be the young and unhappy who do
not want to join the LDPR. Its financial support is likely
to come from Skokov''s contacts with Unikombank, AMBI-bank,
Tveruniversal bank and industries like Norilsk Nickel and
other high-tech military-industrial industries. It has
regional leadership support in Mordovia, the Mari-El
Republic, Tartarstan, Bashkiriya, Karelia, Udmurtiya, and
Chuvashia. (Nevavisimaya Gazeta 10/10, PRISM 10/6)

SKOKOV denied rumors earlier this month that he was being
considered as a replacement for Prime Minister CHERNOMYRDIN.
Although he has a good relationship with Yeltsin, he
disagrees with the government policies. KRO will not be made
into a "tame opposition". Some see this debate as an
executive branch attempt to drive a wedge between Skokov, who
deals with Yeltsin, and Lebed who does not. (Moskovsky
Novosti 10/3, Kommersant Daily 10/10)

Polls show the LEBED is expected to win handily his race for
the Tuva district seat. Results suggest that he will receive
greater than half of the votes. (OMRI 10/27)

YABLOKO (Grigory Yavlinsky): On October 27th, the
Central Election Commission announced it was prohibiting
GRIGORY YAVLINSKY''s Yabloko bloc from participating in the
December elections. Yabloko was cited for changing its
election list after it had been submitted to the CEC.
Specifically, six candidates had withdrawn from the list
without notifying the CEC. Yavlinsky had faxes of the six
candidates and claimed the CEC would not accept faxes, and
the documents had been sent to the CEC in time. Other
parties such as NDR and the Rybkin bloc had also changed
their lists after being approved by the CEC with no
consequence. The net result is the million individuals who
signed for Yabloko will be without a party on election day.
Furthermore, a viable democratic party will not appear on the
ballot if the ban stands.

The CEC action has provoked both a domestic and an
international outcry. In Russia, Prime Minister CHERNOMYRDIN
stated "The decision at the least was ill-considered and
harmful," while ALEXANDER LEBED claimed, "If this is the way
our system treats legitimate political parties, then who can
treat our country seriously?" YEGOR GAIDAR, head of the pro-
reform Russia''s Democratic Choice threatened to boycott the
elections if Yavlinsky''s bloc was not reinstated. President
YELTSIN, in his first decree since being hospitalized,
demanded the CEC explain itself. The American White House
and the European Union also expressed concern over the
decree. Others in Russia have not been so offended.
Communist party leader GENNADY ZYUGANOV, while upset over the
action, stated eventually Yabloko will be allowed to run and
will benefit from the publicity. Others were not so
charitable; YURI SKOKOV, KRO leader, MIKHAIL LAPSHIN, head of
the Agrarian Party, and LDPR leader VLADIMIR ZHIRINOVSKY all
claimed the law must be obeyed.

Should the CEC not reverse its decision, it is unlikely the
elections will be considered valid. With both Yavlinsky and
Gaidar not participating, voters will have no democratic
alternatives. This would leave out a significant portion of
the populace. Without democratic parties, it is unlikely the
West would view the elections as valid. Currently, hopes are
running high that the Supreme Court will force the CEC to
reverse its decision and avert the crisis. (various news
sources 10/27-10/31)

AGRARIAN PARTY (Mikhail Lapshin): In an interview
with Nevavisimaya Gazeta Agrarian Party leader MIKHAIL
LAPSHIN assessed the current political scene. He claimed the
idea of two centrist blocs is absurd. It was a concept
invented by the powers that be to plow up (nice agriculture
term) the election field. He described Duma Speaker and
Agrarian Party member IVAN RYBKIN as someone who got into
power and was "enticed to swim to the other shore." He is
effectively separated from the party. The Agrarian Party,
according to Lapshin, acknowledged people can own their own
Dacha or private plots. They can also sell and inherit these
plots, but the party is against free selling and buying of
agricultural and urban land, especially to foreigners. The
party also is against a referendum on private ownership for
fear that the government will sabotage the results.
(Nevavisimaya Gazeta 10/18)

LIBERAL DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF RUSSIA
(LDPR) (Zhirinovsky): LDPR is not expected to do nearly
as well as in 1993 when it won the largest percentage of the
proportional vote. LDPR has encountered administrative
difficulties in October. It was forced to drop 11 of 12
candidates on its party lists when their names appeared on
the CEC criminal list. Also, two of their regional
candidates were rejected by the CEC for signature fraud.
LDPR is not expected to do well in the regions. (OMRI 10/20,
10/31)

Perhaps to ally fears of a poor showing, LDPR press spokesman
VIKTOR FILATOV, stated a common language would be found
between the LDPR and the CP-RF in the districts. According
to Filatov, both parties have the common objectives of
toppling the current government, imposing tight order, and
preventing a capitalist Russia. (Moscow Kuranty 10/24)

ZHIRINOVSKY visited Saddam Hussein in Iraq and claimed he
admired the Iraqi leader and his policies. He also accused
the Western intelligence sources of causing the president''s
health woes. (OMRI 10/13,FT 10/28-9)

RUSSIA''S DEMOCRATIC CHOICE (RDC)(Yegor
Gaidar): YEGOR GAIDAR''s party agenda includes radically
changing the economic policy of the government. Entitlements
will be abolished and tighter control will exist on natural
monopolies. State support will go to the conversion of the
military-industrial complex, not oil and natural gas sectors.
Finally, parliamentary immunity from prosecution should be
abolished to avoid a Duma of criminals. (Kommersant Daily
10/5)

In the campaign, RDC will rely on their own campaign
strategists as opposed to hired political consultants.
Campaign Director VLADIMIR BOXER says the campaign will move
away from slick ads and TV. (Moscow Times 9/24)

GAIDAR claimed the party had no trouble collecting
signatures, even in the Communist stronghold regions.
Throughout the month Gaidar attacked the Communists calling
them "a nationalist socialist imperial party" that would
destroy the foundations of reform in Russia and compared them
to the Eastern European Communist parties that went "...from
red to pink, while ours have gone from red to brown." (FT
10/13, OMRI 10/27)

GAIDAR also said his party would not participate in the
elections if Yabloko were not allowed to participate (see
Yabloko section).

POWER TO THE PEOPLE (Nikolai Ryzkov): The
Communist sympathetic Power to the People movement had
assistance from the regional Communist party in collecting
signatures. RYZKOV also claimed Yeltsin''s statements against
the Communists "practically unleased total war against the
Communist and national blocs and practically divided the
society in two. (OMRI 10/25)

DERZHAVA (Alexander Rutskoi): Like Yabloko, former
Russian Vice President ALEXANDER RUTSKOI''s nationalist bloc
was also banned by the CEC for a similar election list
violation. Derzhava''s changes numbered around 80. Rutskoi
claimed he too would appeal to the Supreme Court and stated
Our Home is Russia had changed 40 on their list and the
Rybkin Bloc had changed a similar number to Derzhava. The
banning of Derzhava has not provoked such an outcry because
it was unlikely to clear the 5% hurdle. (various sources
10/27-31).

FORWARD RUSSIA! (Boris Fedorov): Former Finance
Minister BORIS FEDOROV urged the government not to take any
more international financing loans. The government,
according to Fedorov, is driving Russia to international
bankruptcy. The party is running a populist campaign with
slogans like "Land to Farmers, Jails to Gangsters." He also
challenged VLADIMIR ZHIRINOVSKY to a boxing match. Finally,
Fedorov claims the democratic forces will be coordinating
efforts in 90% of the districts. (OMRI 10/18,10/31 Moscow
News 9/22)

DEMOCRATIC PARTY OF RUSSIA (DPR): The
St. Petersburg DPR broke with party leader SERGEI GLAZYEV
because of his insistence the party join KRO. Instead the
party will back the DPR Duma leader STANISLAV GOVORUKHIN.
Glazyev said KRO would be victorious and Govorukhin would
not. KRO needs the five year old DPR regional structure for
a presence beyond Moscow. (OMRI 10/11)

IV. If June Presidential Elections. What Outcome?

A. Individuals

Graham Allison Matthew Lantz Sergei Grigoriev

Yavlinsky 15% Cherno 30% Lebed 30%
Lebed 15% Lebed 20% Zyganov 15%
Chernomyrdin 15% Yavlinsky 15% Yavlinsky 10%
Yeltsin 15% Yeltsin 10% Chernomyrdin 10%
Zhirinovsky 5% Zhirinovsky 7%
Zyuganov 3% Yeltsin
Group 1

Group 2

Group 3

Kommersant Daily reported a poll of 1472 people by the All
Russian Center for the Study of Public Opinion on October
27th on trustworthy leaders.

1. Alexander Lebed 13% (esp. in central Russia
and N. Caucasus)
2. Grigory Yavlinsky 12% (esp. in Moscow, St.
Pete, Volga Region)
3. Svatoslav Fedorov 10% (esp. in northwest Russia
and Volga Region)
Don''t Trust Anyone 23%

Moscow Kuranty reported on October 18th the percentage of
parliamentary deputies in each faction that voted for the
draft law on honest elections.

CP-RF 89.4%
Yabloko 85.2%
Russia''s Choice 83.7%
Forward Russia! 54.5%
Agrarians 54.0%
PRES 46.2%
Stability bloc 35.9%
DPR 27.3%
LDPR 3.6%
Women of Russia 0.0%

Interfax and OMRI reported a poll on October 17th by the
Russian Public Opinion Foundation asking if elections were
held next Sunday, who would you vote for?

1. CP-RF 13.4%
2. Yabloko 6.7%
3. KRO 5.4%
4. NDR 3.0%

Interfax reported on October 11th, results of a poll on
presidential candidates conducted by the International
Foundation for Electoral Systems.

1. Lebed 14%
2. Yavlinsky 12%
3. Chernomyrdin 10%
4. Yeltsin 7%
5. Zyuganov 6%
6. Zhirinovsky 5%

OMRI reported a poll on October 10th by Vox Populi asking
which party would you vote for in the December election.

1. CP-RF 14%
2. NDR 10%
3. Yabloko 8%
4. Women of Russia 7%

Poll found low level of support for Russia''s Democratic
Choice, LDPR, and the Agrarians.

Nevavisimaya Gazeta reported a poll on October 10th of the
Moscow Oblast conducted by the Institute of Social and
Political Technologies. The poll found 47% of those polled
will vote, 11% will not, 42% have not decided. The most
important issues were higher living standards (59%) and
security (31%) Of the parties:

1. Women of Russia 21%
2. Yabloko 18%
3. CP-RF 18%
4. NDR 17%
5. LDPR 5%
6. Rybkin Bloc 4%

Nevavisimaya Gazeta reported on October 5th a Defense
Ministry memo assessing the chances of the different
political faction in the upcoming elections.

CP-RF 18-20% of list vote, max. number of seats
including districts = 60-70.
NDR 14-15% of list vote, plus up to 20% of the
districts (40-50 seats), has advantage of
regional leadership support and material and
media advantages.
Yabloko 12-14% of list vote, if lucky get 15% of
district seats, esp. in cities.
KRO 10-12% of list vote, cannot predict regional
vote.
LDPR 8-10% of list vote (significant fall from
last election), will fare poorly in the
regions.
Agparty 6-7% of list vote, will do well in districts,
possible 15-20%.
Russia''s Choice
Derzhava Both get 5-6%, just at 5% threshold.
Women of R. 4-5%, Will win few district mandates.

Kuranty reported on October 3rd an assessment of the most
influential individuals in Russia in the upcoming months as
complied by the Strategic Analysis and Forecasting Center and
Vox Populi. The survey is conducted by polling 50 experts.

Overall list: 1. Chernomyrdin
2. Yeltsin
3. Luzhkov (Mayor of Moscow)
4. Korzhakov (Yeltsin''s bodyguard)
5. Ivan Rybkin (Duma Speaker)

Most influential politicians over the next two months are expected
to be:

NOVEMBER DECEMBER Regional Leaders

1. Chernomyrdin 1. Chernomyrdin 1. Luzhkov
2. Yeltsin 2. Yeltsin 2. Dudyaev (Chechen leader)
3. Rybkin 3. Zyuganov 3. Rossel (Sverdlosk governor)
4. Zyuganov (CP-RF) 4. Yavlinsky 4. Nemtsov (N. Novgorod governor)
5. Yavlinsky (Yabloko) 5. Rybkin 5. Shaimiev (Pres. Tartarstan)
6. Lebed (KRO) 6. Lebed
7. Volsky (Industrialists) 7. Volsky
8. Zhirinovsky (LDPR) 8. Zhirinovsky
9. Lapshin (Agparty) 9. Lapshin
10. Skokov (KRO)

The New York Times reported on October 1 the results of a
poll conducted by the International Foundation for Electoral
Systems asking 3560 individuals what the largest problems of
Russian society were. The top five responses included:

1. economic crisis 24%
2. quality of life 15%
3. peace 9%
4. political leadership 8%
5. ethnic conflicts 7%

Or earlier in the case Yeltsin is incapacitated.
Measuring the number of seats in the resulting Duma incorporating both proportional and district voting.