The Inscrutable Intentions of Great Powers

Summary

Many scholars argue that great powers can reach confident conclusions about each other’s intentions, but these claims are unpersuasive. Neither the domestic characteristics nor behavior of states offers a reliable basis on which to evaluate intentions. These limitations support the theoretical claims of structural realism: competition, not cooperation, will remain the norm among states.

The author has written a policy brief based on this article, "Why the United States and China Are on a Collision Course."