How to Sell Arms to Taiwan

The U.S. can sell arms to Taiwan, but it should adopt salami tactics to avoid alarming China.

Imagine that in 2020, China learns that the United States will soon deliver an unusually large and comprehensive arms package to Taiwan. Determined to continue growing its military advantage — and therefore its leverage — vis-à-vis Taiwan, China declares a red line against the delivery, threatening severe consequences if the United States proceeds. That announcement ignites a standoff in the Taiwan Strait. Each side mobilizes its forces and prepares for the possibility of armed conflict.

This hypothetical scenario captures one of the most likely crises that could break out between China and the United States in the coming years....

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