Conventional Counterforce Dilemmas: South Korea's Deterrence Strategy and Stability on the Korean Peninsula

Download

Published: Winter 2020/21

In this Monday, Sept. 4, 2017 file photo provided by South Korea Defense Ministry, South Korea's Hyunmoo II ballistic missile is fired during an exercise at an undisclosed location in South Korea. South Korean warships have conducted live-fire exercises at sea. The drills Tuesday, Sept. 5, mark the second-straight day of military swagger from a nation still rattled by the North's biggest-ever nuclear test.

Summary

South Korea’s conventional counterforce and countervalue strategy represents both a short-term and a long-term hedge against U.S. abandonment. The strategy has significant implications for stability on the Korean Peninsula. Among them, any peace initiative between the United States and North Korea that does not also address the conventional balance of forces on the Korean Peninsula is unlikely to end in success.

Recommended citation

Ian Bowers and Henrik Stålhane Hiim, "Conventional Counterforce Dilemmas: South Korea's Deterrence Strategy and Stability on the Korean Peninsula," International Security, Vol. 45, No. 3 (Winter 2020/21), pp. 7–39, doi.org/10.1162/isec_a_00399.