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Past Event
Seminar

Fratricidal Coercion in Modern War

Harvard Faculty, Fellows, Staff, and Students

Speaker: Yuri Zhukov, Visiting Associate Professor of Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy School

Armies as diverse as the Red Army, Syrian Arab Army, and the Islamic State have turned their weapons against their own soldiers to force them to fight. Yet there is little systematic evidence on how this fratricidal coercion affects battlefield performance. This project argues that fratricidal coercion generates compliance through fear, compelling soldiers with heterogeneous levels of resolve to conform to a homogeneous standard of battlefield behavior. This reduces rates of desertion, disappearances, and premature surrender, but increases deaths and injuries, as these reluctant warriors now find themselves in harm's way. Second, fratricidal coercion lowers the resolve of more committed soldiers, leading to lost battlefield initiative, and fewer acts of bravery.

Open to Harvard ID Holders Only: Admittance will be on a first come–first served basis. Coffee &Tea Provided.

Date: Time: - Location: Room 350
Blocking unit training its guns on advancing soldiers

About

Speaker: Yuri Zhukov, Visiting Associate Professor of Public Policy, Harvard Kennedy School

This seminar is based on a paper that the speaker is co-authoring with Professor Jason Lyall of Dartmouth College.

Armies as diverse as the Red Army, Syrian Arab Army, and the Islamic State have turned their weapons against their own soldiers to force them to fight. Yet there is little systematic evidence on how this fratricidal coercion affects battlefield performance. This project argues that fratricidal coercion generates compliance through fear, compelling soldiers with heterogeneous levels of resolve to conform to a homogeneous standard of battlefield behavior. This reduces rates of desertion, disappearances, and premature surrender, but increases deaths and injuries, as these reluctant warriors now find themselves in harm's way. Second, fratricidal coercion lowers the resolve of more committed soldiers, leading to lost battlefield initiative, and fewer acts of bravery.

Zhukov and Lyall test their claims using a mixed-method strategy, drawing on (1) monthly panel data on 1,048 Soviet Rifle Divisions in 1941-1945, built from 34 million personnel files; (2) a paired comparison of two Rifle Divisions at the Battle of Leningrad (1941); and (3) 526 land battles (1939-2011) to assess generalizability. They find that fratricidal coercion reduces battlefield flight but increases casualties and suppresses initiative.

Open to Harvard ID Holders Only: Admittance will be on a first come–first served basis. Coffee & Tea Provided.

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