Joshua Itzkowitz Shifrinson’s International Security Article Wins ISA Diplomatic Studies Section Article Award

Joshua R. Itzkowitz Shifrinson’s "Deal or No Deal? The End of the Cold War and the U.S. Offer to Limit NATO Expansion," International Security, Vol. 40, No. 4 (Spring 2016), pp. 7–44, has been named the co-winner of the 2017 Article Award given by the Diplomatic Studies Section of the International Studies Association (ISA). This annual award is presented to the author(s) of the article that best advances the theoretical and empirical study of diplomacy—particularly articles that attempt to connect the study of diplomacy with broader issues and trends in the discipline.

"I am very pleased that Professor Shifrinson's International Security article has won the ISA Diplomatic Studies Section Article Award," said Sean Lynn-Jones, editor of International Security. "He has written a provocative reconsideration of whether the United States promised the Soviet Union that NATO would not expand into Eastern Europe after the Cold War ended. His article has clear implications for understanding the current state of U.S.-Russian relations."

Scholars, analysts, and policymakers have vigorously debated whether in 1990 the United States and its allies pledged not to expand NATO into Eastern Europe. "Deal or No Deal?" argues that the United States offered at least an informal promise not to expand NATO in return for Soviet acceptance of German reunification. Shifrinson reaches this conclusion on the basis of his study of declassified U.S. documents. He also finds that those documents reveal that the George H.W. Bush administration actively maneuvered to ensure that the United States would play a dominant role in Eastern Europe after the Cold War.

Russia's belief that the United States and the West reneged on a commitment to limit or avoid NATO expansion has continued to influence U.S.-Russian relations. Shifrinson acknowledges that Russian revisionism in Ukraine and elsewhere may have been inevitable, but Russian bitterness over the broken U.S. promise intensified Russia's anti-American attitudes and made it less likely that Russia would trust Western diplomatic initiatives.

The full text of Professor Shifrinson's article is available here: http://www.belfercenter.org/publication/deal-or-no-deal-end-cold-war-and-us-offer-limit-nato-expansion

Professor Shifrinson's Author Chat video is available at the bottom of this webpage.

Joshua Itzkowitz Shifrinson is assistant professor in the Department of International Affairs at the George Bush School of Government at Texas A&M University. He was a research fellow in the International Security Program at the Belfer Center in 2011–2012.

Professor Shifrinson’s article is the fifth International Security article to win an award in recent years. Aisha S. Ahmad's "The Security Bazaar: Business Interests and Islamist Power in Civil War Somalia," International Security (winter 2014/15) received the Best Security Article Award given by the International Security Studies Section (ISSS) of the International Studies Association. Keren Yarhi-Milo's "In the Eye of the Beholder: How Leaders and Intelligence Communities Assess the Intentions of Adversaries" (summer 2013) won the 2014 Outstanding Article Award presented by the International History and Politics Section of the American Political Science Association (APSA). Mark Bell's “Beyond Emboldenment: How Acquiring Nuclear Weapons Can Change Foreign Policy” (summer 2015) received the 2016 Patricia Weitsman Award from the International Security Studies Section (ISSS) of the International Studies Association. Michael Beckley's "The Myth of Entangling Alliances: Reassessing the Security Risks of U.S. Defense Pacts"(spring 2015) received an Honorable Mention in the 2016 competition for the Outstanding Article Award presented by APSA’s International History and Politics Section.